In previous presidential elections, many people believed that automation and robots had to some extent increased the unemployment rate in the United States. But Trump, who was still a candidate at the time, diverted public attention by claiming that Mexico and China were causing a decrease in US employment rates, and that the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP) posed a threat to US manufacturing.
In fact, the current Trump administration continues to deliberately underestimate the impact of automation on the US economy. Because once it is acknowledged or even valued, it will contradict policies issued under the banner of improving the labor force situation.
Last Friday, newly appointed Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin stated in an interview that artificial intelligence and automation will not replace human labor in the coming years. That is to say, these scientific technologies will bring positive impacts rather than the negative impacts that the public is concerned about.
However, the public still does not buy it. The New York Times once published an article stating that in the long run, it is not China that is causing the US unemployment rate to rise, but automation. The Associated Press has also reported that automation and robots are the reasons why many factory workers are unemployed.
Therefore, we can clearly see that technology is indeed replacing human labor.
So someone asked, will this unemployment rate continue to rise, even higher than historical records? Can we still keep our jobs in this situation? Will the gap between educated and uneducated individuals continue to widen?
It is obvious that the government cannot provide convincing answers to these complex issues for the public. They play the role of villains and use hype tactics, which will only amplify the negative impact of these issues. So, both the government and the industry should attach great importance to the issue of automation, and strive to solve the problem of unemployment while maintaining manufacturing and innovation.
unemployment problem
Although many companies and groups that support automation believe that reports of automation causing factory workers to lose their jobs are spreading rumors. But in fact, upon closer examination, they have to admit that in the short term, automation is indeed a factor contributing to the unemployment of American workers.
A study conducted by Ball State University in the United States showed that automation has caused many workers to lose their jobs since the 21st century. Between 2000 and 2010, the unemployment rate in the US manufacturing industry reached a historic high.
Based on official data from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, the report states that employment in the US manufacturing industry has been increasing from 1994 to 2000; But after 2000, the situation became less optimistic, with the number of unemployed people reaching as high as 5 million; However, the report also mentioned that although the number of unemployed people has increased, production capacity has also correspondingly improved.
The two authors of the report, Michael J. Hicks and Srikant Devaraj, stated, "After adjusting for inflation, the average output of workers in 1998 was much lower than it is now. There are many reasons for this, and the most important one is that these sectors made significant progress in automation and information technology during that period
Colin Parris, Vice President of Software Research at General Electric, was very direct when talking about this issue: "To be honest, automation inevitably leads to some workers losing their jobs
The only solution is to train existing talents. Because robots and automation can help reduce costs, we will definitely embrace them in the future. But from a different perspective, if costs are reduced, there will be more innovation budget. With more budget, we can develop more new products. With more new products, I will hire more research and development and promotion talents
To be honest, this trend has occurred before. As early as the Industrial Revolution, technology had an impact on labor. Automation not only reduces the number of employed people, but also changes the types of jobs. At the beginning of the 20th century, 41% of jobs in the United States were related to agriculture. But today, a century later, this data has dropped to 1.9%.
But as the saying goes, when God closes a door for you, he will surely open a window, and automation will not lead to unemployment for everyone. A representative from a certain technology company stated in an interview that most of those who lose their jobs due to automation are concentrated in the same position.
We can also see this from a research report released by Boston University in the second half of 2015. The author of the report, James E. Bessen, pointed out that "in general, automation does not replace those more important positions. In addition, there are many reasons for cutting off a position. Sometimes, it is because the market demand for this position has decreased, such as apartment managers; sometimes, it is because the technology used in this position is outdated, such as telegraph operators. And it is still relatively rare for automation to revoke a certain position, such as elevator operators
Supporters of automation argue that even if automation leads to a continuous increase in unemployment in the future, it will only be concentrated in positions that no one is willing to do.
Bob Doyle, from the Association for Advancing Automation in the United States, said, "In the era of automation, companies will eliminate a type of position that we commonly refer to as a 3D position, which is the Dull, Dirty, and Dangerous position. These employees may leave their original positions and switch to other positions to create more value for the company
Last month, Carl Vause, CEO of Soft Robotics, an industrial automation fixture manufacturer, said in an interview, "The company is short of packaging workers, and the turnover rate for this position is very high. Therefore, we hope to find an automated solution that can complete packaging work in a warehouse with a high temperature of 40 degrees Celsius
Economist David Autor from MIT also believes that automation will only replace jobs that people are unwilling to do.
Although his remarks are not as radical as those of his peers, he points out that people's increasing dependence on professional machines has indeed led to a widening wealth gap. This is a vicious cycle, as unemployment rates rise, workers are almost unlikely to receive the education they need to escape poverty.
He continued, "It cannot be denied that automation has had a huge impact on labor structure and the return on learned skills. However, I do not believe that it is the main culprit behind the current rise in unemployment. Of course, automation has reduced job opportunities for people with lower education levels, and has also brought many social and even political impacts
Short term&Long term
Although automation may replace a lot of human labor in the short term, this gap can ultimately be filled, just like the example of agriculture mentioned earlier. Another important point is that with the popularization of automation, the production capacity and business profits of enterprises have significantly increased, which allows for more funds to expand their scale and hire more employees.
Doyle said, "Many middle-income companies, after adopting automation and robots, are not laying off employees, but realizing the value of human resources, especially the value of employees with longer tenure. Of course, there are also companies that are more conservative in this regard. I believe that as long as they discover that automation can help the company develop, they will gladly accept it. After adopting robots, the positions required by the company have also changed, which makes many people frustrated because most of these positions require an engineering degree or other professional skills
Neil Kinson, Chief of Staff of Redwood Software, a robotics company, said in an interview, "Some people exaggerate that human jobs will completely disappear by 2020. But in fact, by then, with the advancement of various scientific and technological advancements, there will be countless new jobs that we have never heard of before. What we should expect is the ability to develop new services, drive growth and employment
Enhance competitiveness
Regardless of whether automation leads to unemployment, companies will continue to develop robots and automation technology. For most companies, their bottom line is the losses caused by these negative news, which can be offset by increasing production capacity and reducing production costs.
IBM CEO Ginni Rometty recently proposed a new concept called "new collar jobs" to refer to job positions created by emerging technologies such as automation and artificial intelligence.
Rometty said in a letter to Trump, "The country needs to focus on infrastructure investment and comprehensively utilize IoT and artificial intelligence technologies to improve efficiency in all aspects
In short, while automation technology replaces some labor, it will also create new job opportunities. In order to achieve development, all companies must open their hearts and embrace emerging technologies.
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